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KMID : 1170320210270030089
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Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy
2021 Volume.27 No. 3 p.89 ~ p.117
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Healthcare Utilization Forecast using a Micro-simulation Approach
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Kim Woo-Hyeon
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Abstract
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A variety of micro-simulation models have been used in the U.S., Canada and Sweden for identifying healthcare policy effects as well as forecasting healthcare spending at a micro- or macro-level. This study adopts the healthcare module in SESIM(a simulation model of the Swedish population) to forecast inpatient and outpatient visit days for the population until the year of 2065 in South Korea. Korea Health Panel Study from 2010 to 2017 was utilized. Inpatient and outpatient visit days are estimated to consistently increase until 2040, and start to decrease thereafter. This study identifies a decrease in population and an increase in highly-educated elderly people in future Korea are the possible sources of the decrease in visit days after 2040.
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KEYWORD
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micro-simulation approach, healthcare utilization forecast, SESIM, Korea Health Panel Study
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